OECD forecasts economic challenges from energy crises and conflict
Disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Gulf energy infrastructure have caused energy prices to rise, affecting fertilizers and industrial inputs.
The conflict involving Iran is expected to have lingering consequences.
In a prolonged disruption scenario, global growth could drop to 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, potentially leading to recession.
Inflation would rise by 0.4 percentage points in 2026 and 1.3 percentage points in 2027.
Stefano Scarpetta, OECD chief economist, warns that unemployment could rise and investment would weaken significantly.
The OECD highlights the vulnerability of global economies to single chokepoints and urges demand-restraint measures and international coordination of strategic energy stocks.
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